Development of a Forecasting Framework and Scenarios to Support the EU Sustainable Development Strategy




Policy-oriented research, Scientific support to policies, Integrating and Strengthening the European Research Area





FORESCENE is a research project funded by the European Commission in the domain of sustainability science.

FORESCENE has developed a generic framework for creating sustainability scenarios which has been applied on the EU level but could potentially be used at different scales and in various contexts. A sequence of questions was explored by combined analytical and participatory approaches. A model prototype using Bayesian networks was built.

You will find below the project's final report and the presentation made at the final round-table workshop in Brussels (see also the Event page). You can browse these documents directly from here. Of course you can download them too. All other reports, papers and presentations produced during the project are available on the Resource page. A question, remark or else? Please contact us.

FORESCENE gathered six partners from six European countries until the end of 2008.

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Final report - Project summary, conclusions and perspectives:

Presentation from the final round-table workshop on 'New approaches and recent results of sustainability scenario building and modelling':

In September 2008, the FORESCENE team organised in Brussels a workshop for experts in sustainability scenario studies and modelling. Some of them got the task to review FORESCENE's modelling approach and its model prototype. Here are some quotes:

"The approach seems very promising to me. I do hope the research team finds a way to continue this work after the end of the FORESCENE project, as there is now a potential for developing operational tools and approaches from this work"

"The FORESCENE model prototype can be useful as a Bayesian learning tool to be used interactively in policy exercises to support exploration and learning about the feasibility of achieving sets of policy goals, the robustness of policy outcomes to management options, performing sensitivity analysis, etc."

"The FORESCENE tools can be useful to facilitate communication, interaction and joint working among different policy departments."

"The FORESCENE approach can be useful in stressing the need for policy packages rather than individual instruments and in helping search for synergistic sets of policy options that might support the achievement of several policy objectives."

"The FORESCENE tool is useful for long-term exploratory analyses aimed at supporting creative thinking about alternative futures, the desirability and feasibility of achieving these and ways of achieving these."

"The FORESCENE model prototype can be useful for pinpointing areas (critical issues) that should be explored in more detail using other models."

"For the policy analysis the FORESCENE approach could be a useful mechanisms to clarify the interaction of issues behind the policy decision and it could help policy makers accept more the concept of uncertainty and help more towards a better mind-set of “future proofing”, which would be useful as a complement to the more linear deterministic approach."

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Last update: 5/2/09 -